> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.sleuthintel.io/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Sleuth - Price Path - Sim v4 - TGE to Month 60

> Original Sleuth document.

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  <iframe title="Sleuth - Price Path - Sim v4 - TGE to Month 60" srcDoc={"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html lang=\"en\">\n<head>\n<meta charset=\"UTF-8\">\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0\">\n<title>SLEUTH \u00b7 Price Path \u00b7 Sim v4 \u00b7 TGE to Month 60</title>\n<link href=\"https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Orbitron:wght@500;700;900&family=Share+Tech+Mono&display=swap\" rel=\"stylesheet\">\n<style>\n:root{\n  --green:#00FF66; --green-dim:#00cc52; --green-glow:rgba(0,255,102,0.3);\n  --green-faint:rgba(0,255,102,0.06); --bg:#060606; --card:#0c0c0c;\n  --border:#1a1a1a; --text:#FFD700; --gold:#FFD700;\n}\n*{margin:0;padding:0;box-sizing:border-box;}\nbody{background:var(--bg);color:var(--text);font-family:'Share Tech Mono',monospace;line-height:1.65;}\n.wrap{max-width:1060px;margin:0 auto;padding:0 24px 80px;}\n.hero{padding:90px 0 20px;}\n.vtag{color:var(--green-dim);font-size:0.78rem;letter-spacing:3px;margin-bottom:18px;}\nh1{font-family:'Orbitron',sans-serif;font-weight:900;color:var(--green);font-size:clamp(1.6rem,4vw,2.6rem);\n  letter-spacing:2px;text-shadow:0 0 18px var(--green-glow);margin-bottom:16px;}\n.lead{font-size:1.05rem;color:var(--gold);margin-bottom:14px;}\nh3{font-family:'Orbitron',sans-serif;font-weight:700;color:var(--gold);font-size:1.02rem;\n  letter-spacing:1.5px;margin:34px 0 12px;}\np{margin-bottom:14px;}\nstrong{color:var(--green);}\nem{color:var(--green-dim);font-style:normal;}\n.svgfig{background:var(--card);border:1px solid var(--border);padding:26px 22px 16px;margin:26px 0;border-radius:2px;}\n.figtitle{font-family:'Orbitron',sans-serif;color:var(--green);font-size:0.85rem;letter-spacing:2px;margin-bottom:16px;}\n.cap{color:var(--green-dim);font-size:0.8rem;margin-top:12px;line-height:1.5;}\n.legend{display:flex;gap:26px;flex-wrap:wrap;margin:6px 0 14px;font-size:0.82rem;}\n.legend span{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:8px;}\n.sw{display:inline-block;width:26px;height:0;border-top-width:3px;border-top-color:currentColor;}\n.l-bull{color:var(--green);} .l-bull .sw{border-top-style:solid;}\n.l-base{color:var(--gold);} .l-base .sw{border-top-style:dashed;}\n.l-bear{color:#ff6b4a;} .l-bear .sw{border-top-style:dotted;}\ntable{width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:22px 0;font-size:0.88rem;}\nth{color:var(--gold);text-align:left;padding:10px 12px;border-bottom:1px solid var(--green-dim);letter-spacing:1px;font-weight:400;}\ntd{padding:10px 12px;border-bottom:1px solid var(--border);}\ntr:hover td{background:var(--green-faint);}\n.callout{border:1px solid var(--green-dim);background:rgba(0,255,102,0.04);padding:24px 28px;margin:26px 0;border-radius:2px;}\n.callout .ct{font-family:'Orbitron',sans-serif;color:var(--green);letter-spacing:2px;font-size:0.95rem;margin-bottom:10px;}\n.footer{border-top:1px solid var(--border);margin-top:70px;padding-top:24px;font-size:0.75rem;\n  color:var(--green-dim);letter-spacing:2px;text-align:center;}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrap\">\n\n<div class=\"hero\">\n  <div class=\"vtag\">SLEUTH \u00b7 SIMULATION v4 \u00b7 PRICE PATH \u00b7 JULY 2026 \u00b7 PRIVATE &amp; CONFIDENTIAL</div>\n  <h1>SLEUTH PRICE PATH \u00b7 TGE TO MONTH 60</h1>\n  <p class=\"lead\">Averaged across 25 Monte Carlo runs per scenario, 70/30 hold case, full demand side: tier-hold demand, agent wave, speculative interest, buybacks, soft floor, calendar unlocks. Illustrative shape, not a forecast, same caveat as every chart in the whitepaper.</p>\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"svgfig\">\n  <div class=\"figtitle\">SIMULATED SLEUTH PRICE \u00b7 $ \u00b7 MONTHS 0\u201360 \u00b7 UNLOCK WINDOW SHADED (MO 13\u201348)</div>\n  <div class=\"legend\">\n    <span class=\"l-bull\"><span class=\"sw\"></span>BULL \u00b7 peak $5.03 \u00b7 ends $4.57 (15.2x)</span>\n    <span class=\"l-base\"><span class=\"sw\"></span>BASE \u00b7 peak $2.07 \u00b7 ends $1.94 (6.5x)</span>\n    <span class=\"l-bear\"><span class=\"sw\"></span>BEAR \u00b7 peak $0.63 \u00b7 ends $0.60 (2.0x)</span>\n  </div>\n  <svg id=\"pachart\" viewBox=\"0 0 900 420\" width=\"100%\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Line chart of simulated SLEUTH price over 60 months under three demand scenarios, each running up through the cliffed first year, dipping when calendar unlocks begin at month 13, flat through the unlock era, and climbing again after month 48.\"></svg>\n  <div class=\"cap\">All three paths share one shape: run-up through the cliffed year on thin float, a 28\u201342% drawdown when the calendar unlock lands at month 13, a long flat fight between unlock supply and platform demand, then a resumed climb the month the last calendar tranche clears at month 48. The recovery kink at month 49 is the unlock ending, not new demand.</div>\n</div>\n\n<h3>The Numbers Behind the Lines</h3>\n<table>\n  <tr><th>Scenario</th><th>Price Mo 12</th><th>Unlock Drawdown</th><th>Floor (Mo 13\u201348)</th><th>Price Mo 60</th><th>Multiple</th></tr>\n  <tr><td>Bull</td><td>$5.03 \u00b7 16.8x</td><td>40%</td><td>~$3.07</td><td>$4.57</td><td>15.2x</td></tr>\n  <tr><td>Base</td><td>$2.07 \u00b7 6.9x</td><td>34%</td><td>~$1.36</td><td>$1.94</td><td>6.5x</td></tr>\n  <tr><td>Bear</td><td>$0.63 \u00b7 2.1x</td><td>28%</td><td>~$0.44</td><td>$0.60</td><td>2.0x</td></tr>\n</table>\n\n<div class=\"callout\">\n  <div class=\"ct\">HOW TO READ THIS</div>\n  <p style=\"margin:0\">The cliff builds the run-up. The unlock builds the dip. Demand decides the recovery, and insider sell-through decides how deep the hole is: at 20% sell-through the dip disappears entirely, at 80% it is a 56% drawdown. Even the bear path holds above the $0.30 listing at month 60. Full method, payoff tables, and the honesty checks live in the Simulation v4 report.</p>\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"footer\">SLEUTH \u00b7 SIMULATION v4 \u00b7 PRICE PATH \u00b7 PRIVATE &amp; CONFIDENTIAL \u00b7 JULY 2026</div>\n\n</div>\n<script>\nconst bull=[0.30,0.395,0.524,0.705,0.939,1.209,1.524,1.858,2.189,2.863,3.611,4.283,5.03,4.235,4.093,4.082,4.157,4.01,3.884,3.781,3.596,3.475,3.242,3.255,3.202,3.15,3.072,3.122,3.125,3.081,3.087,3.131,3.097,3.182,3.134,3.07,3.077,3.161,3.128,3.117,3.162,3.123,3.163,3.168,3.112,3.142,3.127,3.168,3.126,3.424,3.585,3.673,3.8,3.857,4.017,4.073,4.188,4.263,4.345,4.456,4.571];\nconst base=[0.30,0.338,0.388,0.467,0.555,0.647,0.754,0.88,1.01,1.164,1.491,1.767,2.069,1.943,1.803,1.779,1.747,1.728,1.682,1.642,1.586,1.573,1.482,1.462,1.41,1.402,1.395,1.364,1.401,1.367,1.367,1.357,1.374,1.366,1.387,1.359,1.395,1.376,1.385,1.383,1.387,1.377,1.39,1.382,1.376,1.365,1.416,1.383,1.406,1.505,1.557,1.596,1.626,1.651,1.694,1.731,1.771,1.818,1.845,1.902,1.938];\nconst bear=[0.30,0.309,0.32,0.338,0.362,0.386,0.413,0.442,0.471,0.504,0.539,0.581,0.625,0.571,0.531,0.501,0.472,0.458,0.487,0.485,0.475,0.47,0.476,0.473,0.483,0.474,0.477,0.475,0.469,0.461,0.456,0.459,0.452,0.452,0.454,0.451,0.454,0.455,0.443,0.447,0.45,0.449,0.449,0.45,0.448,0.452,0.452,0.447,0.448,0.478,0.493,0.502,0.513,0.529,0.537,0.55,0.555,0.574,0.58,0.591,0.6];\n\nconst svg=document.getElementById('pachart');\nconst W=900,H=420,L=64,R=20,T=18,B=44;\nconst pw=W-L-R,ph=H-T-B;\nconst ymax=5.5,xmax=60;\nconst X=m=>L+pw*m/xmax;\nconst Y=v=>T+ph*(1-v/ymax);\nconst NS='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg';\nfunction el(tag,attrs){const e=document.createElementNS(NS,tag);for(const k in attrs)e.setAttribute(k,attrs[k]);svg.appendChild(e);return e;}\n\nel('rect',{x:X(13),y:T,width:X(48)-X(13),height:ph,fill:'rgba(255,215,0,0.05)'});\nel('text',{x:(X(13)+X(48))/2,y:T+16,'text-anchor':'middle',fill:'#8a7a1e','font-size':'11','font-family':'Share Tech Mono,monospace','letter-spacing':'2'}).textContent='CALENDAR UNLOCK \u00b7 1.6%/MO';\n\nfor(let v=0;v<=5;v++){\n  el('line',{x1:L,y1:Y(v),x2:W-R,y2:Y(v),stroke:'#1a1a1a','stroke-width':1});\n  el('text',{x:L-10,y:Y(v)+4,'text-anchor':'end',fill:'#00cc52','font-size':'11','font-family':'Share Tech Mono,monospace'}).textContent='$'+v.toFixed(2);\n}\nfor(let m=0;m<=60;m+=6){\n  el('line',{x1:X(m),y1:T+ph,x2:X(m),y2:T+ph+5,stroke:'#00cc52','stroke-width':1});\n  el('text',{x:X(m),y:T+ph+20,'text-anchor':'middle',fill:'#00cc52','font-size':'11','font-family':'Share Tech Mono,monospace'}).textContent=m;\n}\nel('text',{x:L+pw/2,y:H-6,'text-anchor':'middle',fill:'#00cc52','font-size':'11','font-family':'Share Tech Mono,monospace','letter-spacing':'2'}).textContent='MONTH FROM TGE';\n\nel('line',{x1:L,y1:Y(0.30),x2:W-R,y2:Y(0.30),stroke:'#FFD700','stroke-width':1,'stroke-dasharray':'2 4',opacity:0.5});\nel('text',{x:W-R-4,y:Y(0.30)-6,'text-anchor':'end',fill:'#FFD700','font-size':'10','font-family':'Share Tech Mono,monospace',opacity:0.7}).textContent='$0.30 LISTING';\n\nfunction path(data,color,dash){\n  let d='M'+X(0)+' '+Y(data[0]);\n  for(let i=1;i<data.length;i++)d+=' L'+X(i)+' '+Y(data[i]);\n  const p=el('path',{d:d,fill:'none',stroke:color,'stroke-width':2.5,'stroke-linejoin':'round','stroke-linecap':'round'});\n  if(dash)p.setAttribute('stroke-dasharray',dash);\n}\npath(bear,'#ff6b4a','2 5');\npath(base,'#FFD700','8 5');\npath(bull,'#00FF66','');\n\nel('circle',{cx:X(12),cy:Y(5.03),r:4,fill:'#00FF66'});\nel('text',{x:X(12),y:Y(5.03)-10,'text-anchor':'middle',fill:'#00FF66','font-size':'11','font-family':'Share Tech Mono,monospace'}).textContent='$5.03';\nel('circle',{cx:X(12),cy:Y(2.069),r:4,fill:'#FFD700'});\nel('text',{x:X(12)+10,y:Y(2.069)-8,'text-anchor':'start',fill:'#FFD700','font-size':'11','font-family':'Share Tech Mono,monospace'}).textContent='$2.07';\nel('circle',{cx:X(12),cy:Y(0.625),r:4,fill:'#ff6b4a'});\nel('text',{x:X(12)+10,y:Y(0.625)+4,'text-anchor':'start',fill:'#ff6b4a','font-size':'11','font-family':'Share Tech Mono,monospace'}).textContent='$0.63';\nel('circle',{cx:X(60),cy:Y(4.571),r:4,fill:'#00FF66'});\nel('text',{x:X(60)-8,y:Y(4.571)-10,'text-anchor':'end',fill:'#00FF66','font-size':'11','font-family':'Share Tech Mono,monospace'}).textContent='$4.57';\nel('circle',{cx:X(60),cy:Y(1.938),r:4,fill:'#FFD700'});\nel('text',{x:X(60)-8,y:Y(1.938)-10,'text-anchor':'end',fill:'#FFD700','font-size':'11','font-family':'Share Tech Mono,monospace'}).textContent='$1.94';\nel('circle',{cx:X(60),cy:Y(0.6),r:4,fill:'#ff6b4a'});\nel('text',{x:X(60)-8,y:Y(0.6)-10,'text-anchor':'end',fill:'#ff6b4a','font-size':'11','font-family':'Share Tech Mono,monospace'}).textContent='$0.60';\n</script>\n</body>\n</html>\n" } style={{ width: "100%", minHeight: "100vh", border: "none", display: "block", background: "#060606" }} />
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