> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.sleuthintel.io/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Sleuth - Token Economy Simulation v4 - 5 Years

> Original Sleuth document.

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  <iframe title="Sleuth - Token Economy Simulation v4 - 5 Years" srcDoc={"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html lang=\"en\">\n<head>\n<meta charset=\"UTF-8\">\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0\">\n<title>SLEUTH \u00b7 Token Economy Simulation v4 \u00b7 5 Years</title>\n<link href=\"https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Orbitron:wght@500;700;900&family=Share+Tech+Mono&display=swap\" rel=\"stylesheet\">\n<style>\n:root{\n  --green:#00FF66; --green-dim:#00cc52; --green-glow:rgba(0,255,102,0.3);\n  --green-faint:rgba(0,255,102,0.06); --bg:#060606; --card:#0c0c0c;\n  --border:#1a1a1a; --text:#FFD700; --gold:#FFD700; --gold-glow:rgba(255,215,0,0.25);\n}\n*{margin:0;padding:0;box-sizing:border-box;}\nhtml{scroll-behavior:smooth;}\nbody{background:var(--bg);color:var(--text);font-family:'Share Tech Mono',monospace;line-height:1.65;overflow-x:hidden;}\n.wrap{position:relative;z-index:1;max-width:1060px;margin:0 auto;padding:0 24px 80px;}\n.hero{padding:110px 0 30px;}\n.vtag{color:var(--green-dim);font-size:0.78rem;letter-spacing:3px;margin-bottom:18px;}\nh1{font-family:'Orbitron',sans-serif;font-weight:900;color:var(--green);font-size:clamp(1.9rem,4.6vw,3rem);\n  letter-spacing:2px;text-shadow:0 0 18px var(--green-glow);margin-bottom:16px;}\n.section{padding:56px 0 10px;}\n.eyebrow{color:var(--gold);font-size:0.8rem;letter-spacing:3px;margin-bottom:10px;}\nh2{font-family:'Orbitron',sans-serif;font-weight:700;color:var(--green);font-size:clamp(1.4rem,3.2vw,2.1rem);\n  letter-spacing:1.5px;margin-bottom:16px;text-shadow:0 0 14px var(--green-glow);}\nh3{font-family:'Orbitron',sans-serif;font-weight:700;color:var(--gold);font-size:1.05rem;\n  letter-spacing:1.5px;margin:34px 0 12px;}\np{margin-bottom:14px;}\n.lead{font-size:1.08rem;color:var(--gold);}\nul{margin:0 0 16px 20px;}\nli{margin-bottom:10px;}\nstrong{color:var(--green);}\nem{color:var(--green-dim);font-style:normal;}\n.card{background:var(--card);border:1px solid var(--border);border-left:2px solid var(--green-dim);\n  padding:22px;margin:18px 0;border-radius:2px;}\n.card.gold{border-left-color:var(--gold);}\n.card h4{font-family:'Orbitron',sans-serif;color:var(--green);font-size:0.92rem;letter-spacing:1.5px;margin-bottom:10px;}\n.card.gold h4{color:var(--gold);}\n.grid2{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr;gap:20px;margin:22px 0;}\n.grid2 .card{margin:0;}\n@media(max-width:760px){.grid2{grid-template-columns:1fr;}}\n.statrow{display:flex;gap:18px;flex-wrap:wrap;margin:28px 0;}\n.stat{flex:1;min-width:150px;background:var(--card);border:1px solid var(--border);padding:20px;\n  border-radius:2px;text-align:center;}\n.stat .n{font-family:'Orbitron',sans-serif;font-weight:900;color:var(--green);font-size:1.7rem;\n  text-shadow:0 0 12px var(--green-glow);}\n.stat .l{color:var(--gold);font-size:0.72rem;letter-spacing:1.5px;margin-top:6px;}\ntable{width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:22px 0;font-size:0.88rem;}\nth{color:var(--gold);text-align:left;padding:10px 12px;border-bottom:1px solid var(--green-dim);\n  letter-spacing:1px;font-weight:400;}\ntd{padding:10px 12px;border-bottom:1px solid var(--border);}\ntr:hover td{background:var(--green-faint);}\n.tablewrap{overflow-x:auto;}\n.callout{border:1px solid var(--green-dim);background:rgba(0,255,102,0.04);padding:24px 28px;\n  margin:26px 0;border-radius:2px;}\n.callout .ct{font-family:'Orbitron',sans-serif;color:var(--green);letter-spacing:2px;font-size:0.95rem;margin-bottom:10px;}\n.win td{color:var(--green);}\n.lose td{opacity:0.75;}\n.footer{border-top:1px solid var(--border);margin-top:70px;padding-top:24px;font-size:0.75rem;\n  color:var(--green-dim);letter-spacing:2px;text-align:center;}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrap\">\n\n<div class=\"hero\">\n  <div class=\"vtag\">SLEUTH \u00b7 TOKEN ECONOMY SIMULATION v4 \u00b7 JULY 2026 \u00b7 PRIVATE &amp; CONFIDENTIAL</div>\n  <h1>FIVE YEARS. FULL DEMAND SIDE. THE UNLOCK SURVIVES.</h1>\n  <p class=\"lead\">Simulation v1 proved the wage mechanics honest over 36 months. It never touched the token side. v4 runs the whole economy for 60 months: tier-hold demand, the agent wave, speculative interest on a 2.5% float, buybacks, the soft floor, and the month 13 calendar unlock hitting the market at 1.6% of supply per month. Three demand paths, two hold-share cases, 25 Monte Carlo runs per cell. The headline: demand absorbs the unlock in every scenario tested, honest work still out-earns every cheat under every price path including zero detection, and the single number that decides the chart's shape is not the buyback. It is insider sell-through.</p>\n</div>\n\n<!-- \u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500 01 \u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500 -->\n<section class=\"section\">\n  <div class=\"eyebrow\">// 01</div>\n  <h2>What v4 Adds</h2>\n  <p>v1 asked one question: does honest work out-earn cheating inside the wage mechanics? It answered yes and stopped there. Wages were dollar-denominated, the token never existed, price never moved. That left the biggest questions in the whitepaper untested: what the calendar unlocks do to price, whether the buyback matters, what holding a wage is worth versus selling it, and what happens when the agent wave shows up as both a demand force and a workforce.</p>\n  <p>v4 models the full loop. Every monthly epoch now settles into a live price, and the price is driven by the actual flows the whitepaper specifies:</p>\n  <ul>\n    <li><strong>Buy side.</strong> Tier-hold demand: every subscriber who chooses the hold-SLEUTH path locks a $2,000 to $4,000 position off the market and defends it. The agent wave: agents onboarding from around month 9 at machine speed, consuming API calls that feed the buyback and holding tier positions of their own. Speculative interest from TGE to month 12 on a true holder float of 2.5% of supply. The soft floor: dollar-denominated tiers mean a falling price triggers top-up buying from every holder sitting at a threshold.</li>\n    <li><strong>Sell side.</strong> Epoch wages, capped at $150K a month and half-sold on average. The calendar unlock from month 13: VC, team, dev fund, and marketing releasing 1.6% of supply monthly through month 48, with sell-through swept as a parameter. And the whitepaper's own honest counterweight: tier holders trimming when a position doubles.</li>\n    <li><strong>The workforce.</strong> Two new agent populations join the eight human strategies: agent grinders contributing at machine volume, and agent API creators earning the 50% marketplace revenue share. Same rules, same vesting, same slashing.</li>\n  </ul>\n  <div class=\"callout\">\n    <div class=\"ct\">SAME DISCIPLINE AS v1</div>\n    <p style=\"margin:0\">The price engine is a net-flow-versus-pool-depth approximation, not market microstructure. The demand curves are assumptions until beta data replaces them. The multiples below are shape, not forecast. The robust findings are the ones that hold across every cell: the unlock drawdown pattern, the sell-through sensitivity, and the honesty result.</p>\n  </div>\n</section>\n\n<!-- \u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500 02 \u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500 -->\n<section class=\"section\">\n  <div class=\"eyebrow\">// 02</div>\n  <h2>Method</h2>\n  <div class=\"statrow\">\n    <div class=\"stat\"><div class=\"n\">60</div><div class=\"l\">MONTHLY EPOCHS</div></div>\n    <div class=\"stat\"><div class=\"n\">~600</div><div class=\"l\">AGENTS \u00b7 10 STRATEGIES</div></div>\n    <div class=\"stat\"><div class=\"n\">6</div><div class=\"l\">SCENARIO CELLS</div></div>\n    <div class=\"stat\"><div class=\"n\">25</div><div class=\"l\">MC RUNS PER CELL</div></div>\n  </div>\n  <p>All wage mechanics carry over from v1 unchanged: the $10\u2013$250 superlinear grade curve, $5 verifier fee under the 15% cap, $50 bad-pass and wrong-reject slashes, bounties from the offender's own unvested wages, one month cliff and three tranches, 0.5% daily decay behind the Grade 2 bar, the $150K ceiling with pro-rata trim, and the $1,000 / $1,500 licence gates. Token constants come straight from whitepaper v20: 100M fixed supply, $0.30 listing, 20% of supply in the V4 pool paired with ~$1M ETH, 2.5% true holder float at TGE, all calendar allocations cliffed 12 months then 1.6% of supply releasing monthly through month 48.</p>\n\n  <h3>The Scenario Grid</h3>\n  <div class=\"tablewrap\"><table>\n    <tr><th>Demand Path</th><th>Humans at Plateau</th><th>Agent Wave</th><th>Speculative Interest</th></tr>\n    <tr><td>Bull</td><td>~7,000 (World B)</td><td>Month 9, ceiling ~12,000</td><td>High</td></tr>\n    <tr><td>Base</td><td>~4,000</td><td>Month 10, ceiling ~6,000</td><td>Average-high</td></tr>\n    <tr><td>Bear</td><td>~1,800 (near World A)</td><td>Late, month 18, ceiling ~2,500</td><td>Muted</td></tr>\n  </table></div>\n  <p>Each path runs twice: once with 70% of tier-access users holding SLEUTH rather than paying cash, once at 45%. Calendar sell-through defaults to 40% of newly unlocked tokens sold, and is swept separately from 20% to 80%.</p>\n</section>\n\n<!-- \u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500 03 \u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500 -->\n<section class=\"section\">\n  <div class=\"eyebrow\">// 03</div>\n  <h2>Results \u00b7 The Price Path</h2>\n  <div class=\"tablewrap\"><table>\n    <tr><th>Scenario</th><th>Hold Share</th><th>Price Mo 12</th><th>Unlock Drawdown</th><th>Price Mo 36</th><th>Price Mo 60</th><th>Revenue / Mo at 60</th><th>Reserve $ at 60</th></tr>\n    <tr class=\"win\"><td>Bull</td><td>70/30</td><td>$5.03 \u00b7 16.8x</td><td>40%</td><td>$3.08</td><td>$4.57 \u00b7 15.2x</td><td>$674K</td><td>$9.8M</td></tr>\n    <tr class=\"win\"><td>Bull</td><td>45/55</td><td>$4.95 \u00b7 16.5x</td><td>42%</td><td>$2.87</td><td>$4.24 \u00b7 14.1x</td><td>$806K</td><td>$11.8M</td></tr>\n    <tr class=\"win\"><td>Base</td><td>70/30</td><td>$2.07 \u00b7 6.9x</td><td>34%</td><td>$1.39</td><td>$1.94 \u00b7 6.5x</td><td>$281K</td><td>$3.9M</td></tr>\n    <tr class=\"win\"><td>Base</td><td>45/55</td><td>$1.85 \u00b7 6.2x</td><td>34%</td><td>$1.25</td><td>$1.71 \u00b7 5.7x</td><td>$358K</td><td>$5.0M</td></tr>\n    <tr><td>Bear</td><td>70/30</td><td>$0.63 \u00b7 2.1x</td><td>28%</td><td>$0.45</td><td>$0.60 \u00b7 2.0x</td><td>$95K</td><td>$1.1M</td></tr>\n    <tr><td>Bear</td><td>45/55</td><td>$0.59 \u00b7 2.0x</td><td>32%</td><td>$0.40</td><td>$0.51 \u00b7 1.7x</td><td>$129K</td><td>$1.5M</td></tr>\n  </table></div>\n  <p><em>Unlock drawdown = worst fall from the month 12 price during months 13\u201324, the window where the calendar unlock lands.</em></p>\n\n  <h3>The Shape Every Path Shares</h3>\n  <p>Run-up, unlock dip, grind back. The cliffed year does exactly what it was designed to do: with zero calendar supply entering circulation and tier demand locking float away, price runs hard on thin float through month 12. Then the unlock lands and every scenario takes a 28% to 42% drawdown before demand re-absorbs the flow and the climb resumes. Nothing tested breaks the economy: even the bear path holds above listing at month 60. But nothing avoids the dip either. It is a structural feature of the release schedule, and it should be planned for, not discovered.</p>\n\n  <h3>The Hold-Share Question Barely Matters</h3>\n  <p>70/30 versus 45/55 moves the month 60 price by roughly 13%. The reason is a built-in hedge: fewer holders means more cash payers, which means more revenue, which means bigger buybacks. The two effects partially cancel. The model is not fragile on this assumption, which means nobody has to defend a hold-share guess in a pitch.</p>\n</section>\n\n<!-- \u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500 04 \u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500 -->\n<section class=\"section\">\n  <div class=\"eyebrow\">// 04</div>\n  <h2>The Number That Decides the Chart</h2>\n  <p class=\"lead\">Not the buyback. Not the hold share. Insider sell-through on the calendar unlock.</p>\n  <div class=\"tablewrap\"><table>\n    <tr><th>Calendar Sell-Through</th><th>Unlock Drawdown</th><th>Price Mo 60</th><th>Multiple</th></tr>\n    <tr class=\"win\"><td>20%</td><td>none \u00b7 price keeps climbing</td><td>$2.61</td><td>8.7x</td></tr>\n    <tr><td>40% (default)</td><td>34%</td><td>$1.90</td><td>6.3x</td></tr>\n    <tr><td>60%</td><td>48%</td><td>$1.52</td><td>5.1x</td></tr>\n    <tr class=\"lose\"><td>80%</td><td>56%</td><td>$1.32</td><td>4.4x</td></tr>\n  </table></div>\n  <p>Base scenario, 70/30 hold. At 20% sell-through the unlock is a non-event: demand eats the flow and the chart never notices month 13. At 80% it is a 56% drawdown that takes years to repair. Every point of insider patience is worth more to the chart than any mechanic in the whitepaper. The practical read: whatever keeps VC and team allocations off the market past month 13, whether staggered internal schedules, OTC coordination, or plain conviction, buys more price stability than the entire buyback engine over the same window.</p>\n  <div class=\"callout\">\n    <div class=\"ct\">THE HEADLINE</div>\n    <p style=\"margin:0\">The cliffed year builds the run-up. The unlock builds the dip. Demand decides the recovery, and insider sell-through decides how deep the hole is. All four are visible in advance, none of them is a surprise, and the economy survives every combination tested.</p>\n  </div>\n</section>\n\n<!-- \u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500 05 \u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500 -->\n<section class=\"section\">\n  <div class=\"eyebrow\">// 05</div>\n  <h2>Payoff Per Head \u00b7 Base Path, 70/30 \u00b7 60 Months</h2>\n  <p>Two columns per strategy now: wages sold the day they vest, and wages held as tokens to month 60 and revalued at the ending price of $1.94. The gap between them is what price appreciation pays a patient contributor.</p>\n  <div class=\"tablewrap\"><table>\n    <tr><th>Strategy</th><th>Sold at Vest $</th><th>Held to Mo 60 $</th><th>PA Multiple</th><th>Banned</th><th>Slashed $</th></tr>\n    <tr class=\"win\"><td>Clean whale</td><td>$28,715</td><td>$120,142</td><td>4.18x</td><td>0%</td><td>$0</td></tr>\n    <tr class=\"win\"><td>Decay farmer</td><td>$25,422</td><td>$115,540</td><td>4.54x</td><td>0%</td><td>$0</td></tr>\n    <tr class=\"win\"><td>Agent grinder</td><td>$53,810</td><td>$68,519</td><td>1.27x</td><td>0%</td><td>$0</td></tr>\n    <tr class=\"win\"><td>Honest verifier</td><td>$28,862</td><td>$40,360</td><td>1.40x</td><td>0%</td><td>$1,091</td></tr>\n    <tr class=\"win\"><td>Quality hunter</td><td>$22,402</td><td>$34,679</td><td>1.55x</td><td>0%</td><td>$0</td></tr>\n    <tr class=\"win\"><td>Grinder</td><td>$14,137</td><td>$21,888</td><td>1.55x</td><td>0%</td><td>$0</td></tr>\n    <tr class=\"win\"><td>Agent API creator</td><td>$16,775</td><td>$21,417</td><td>1.28x</td><td>0%</td><td>$0</td></tr>\n    <tr><td>Lazy rejector</td><td>$12,475</td><td>$19,018</td><td>1.52x</td><td>0%</td><td>$13,197</td></tr>\n    <tr class=\"lose\"><td>Colluding trio</td><td>$404</td><td>$1,406</td><td>\u00b7</td><td>100%</td><td>$60</td></tr>\n    <tr class=\"lose\"><td>Plant-and-flag</td><td>$66</td><td>$321</td><td>\u00b7</td><td>100%</td><td>$18</td></tr>\n  </table></div>\n  <p><em>The whale strategies show the biggest PA multiples because their wages landed early, at the cheapest prices. The cheat rows ride the same appreciation on their scraps, which changes nothing: the absolute numbers stay two orders of magnitude behind honest work.</em></p>\n\n  <h3>The Agent Grinder Finding</h3>\n  <p>The top honest earner on sold-at-vest wages is not human. Agent grinders, contributing mid-grade intel at machine volume, out-earn every human strategy at $53.8K per head over the run. This is the agent-first design working exactly as written: same rules, same wages, and machine speed compounds. It carries one consequence worth deciding on before it becomes a community question rather than a design one. Agents at volume dominate the epoch bill, which means the $150K ceiling trims more often, and pro-rata trim hits humans and agents alike. The protocol is species-blind and the trim is working as designed. The optics of humans getting trimmed because agents flooded an epoch is a conversation to have on our terms, early, not on the swarm's terms, later.</p>\n</section>\n\n<!-- \u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500 06 \u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500 -->\n<section class=\"section\">\n  <div class=\"eyebrow\">// 06</div>\n  <h2>Honesty Under Every Price Path</h2>\n  <p>The v1 result had to be re-proven, because a rising token changes the cheat math: tokens stolen cheap and held appreciate like anyone else's. The check runs across all six cells, held-to-60 valuation, and then once more on the most tempting path of all, the bull run with detection switched off entirely.</p>\n  <div class=\"tablewrap\"><table>\n    <tr><th>Cell</th><th>Plant &amp; Flag</th><th>Colluder</th><th>Grinder</th><th>Quality</th><th>Verdict</th></tr>\n    <tr><td>Bull \u00b7 70/30</td><td>$547</td><td>$2,122</td><td>$25,098</td><td>$39,768</td><td class=\"win\">HOLDS</td></tr>\n    <tr><td>Bull \u00b7 45/55</td><td>$528</td><td>$2,054</td><td>$24,654</td><td>$39,064</td><td class=\"win\">HOLDS</td></tr>\n    <tr><td>Base \u00b7 70/30</td><td>$321</td><td>$1,406</td><td>$21,888</td><td>$34,679</td><td class=\"win\">HOLDS</td></tr>\n    <tr><td>Base \u00b7 45/55</td><td>$292</td><td>$1,291</td><td>$21,193</td><td>$33,579</td><td class=\"win\">HOLDS</td></tr>\n    <tr><td>Bear \u00b7 70/30</td><td>$131</td><td>$681</td><td>$18,059</td><td>$28,615</td><td class=\"win\">HOLDS</td></tr>\n    <tr><td>Bear \u00b7 45/55</td><td>$113</td><td>$596</td><td>$17,167</td><td>$27,203</td><td class=\"win\">HOLDS</td></tr>\n  </table></div>\n\n  <h3>Zero Detection, Bull Path</h3>\n  <p>Enforcement off, price running to 15x. The best possible world for a cheater.</p>\n  <div class=\"tablewrap\"><table>\n    <tr><th>Strategy</th><th>Held to Mo 60 $</th></tr>\n    <tr class=\"lose\"><td>Plant-and-flag</td><td>$16,735</td></tr>\n    <tr class=\"lose\"><td>Colluding trio</td><td>$19,261</td></tr>\n    <tr class=\"win\"><td>Grinder</td><td>$24,905</td></tr>\n    <tr class=\"win\"><td>Quality hunter</td><td>$39,432</td></tr>\n  </table></div>\n  <p><strong>Honesty holds at zero detection, on the bull path, at 60 months.</strong> The plumbing carries it, same as v1: bounties sourced from the cheater's own unvested wages, months of forfeitable vesting, and decay gating every right. Price appreciation lifts every boat and changes no rankings.</p>\n</section>\n\n<!-- \u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500 07 \u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500 -->\n<section class=\"section\">\n  <div class=\"eyebrow\">// 07</div>\n  <h2>Limits, Stated Plainly</h2>\n  <p>A simulation is an argument, not a proof, and this one argues about more things than v1 did, so it leans on more assumptions. The price engine is a simplified net-flow-versus-depth model: no order book, no reflexivity beyond the soft floor, no external market regime. The demand curves, human and agent adoption, speculative interest, and sell-through rates are all assumptions until beta and post-TGE data replace them with measurements. The agent wave's timing and size is the largest single unknown, and it is also the parameter the results are most sensitive to on the upside.</p>\n  <div class=\"grid2\">\n    <div class=\"card\"><h4>WHAT THIS DOES CLAIM</h4><p>That under the whitepaper's published mechanics, the month 13 unlock produces a drawdown in every scenario and demand re-absorbs it in every scenario. That insider sell-through, not the buyback, is the dominant lever on that drawdown. That the honesty result of v1 survives the token era at every price path tested including zero detection. And that the hold-share assumption is one the model is robust to.</p></div>\n    <div class=\"card gold\"><h4>WHAT THIS DOES NOT CLAIM</h4><p>Any specific price at any specific month. The multiples are the output of assumed demand curves and a simplified price mechanism: they show shape and sensitivity, not targets. It does not claim the unlock dip is avoidable, only that it is survivable and its depth is controllable. The model reruns as real data arrives, same standing commitment as v1.</p></div>\n  </div>\n  <div class=\"ticker\" style=\"border:1px solid var(--border);padding:14px 0;margin:26px 0;overflow:hidden;white-space:nowrap;\">\n    <span style=\"color:var(--green-dim);letter-spacing:2px;font-size:0.85rem;\">Six cells. Honesty holds in all of them. &nbsp;\u00b7&nbsp; The cliff builds the run-up, sell-through decides the dip. &nbsp;\u00b7&nbsp; The top honest earner is not human. &nbsp;\u00b7&nbsp; An argument, not a forecast.</span>\n  </div>\n</section>\n\n<div class=\"footer\">SLEUTH \u00b7 TOKEN ECONOMY SIMULATION v4 \u00b7 PRIVATE &amp; CONFIDENTIAL \u00b7 JULY 2026 \u00b7 SIMULATION CODE AVAILABLE ON REQUEST</div>\n\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n" } style={{ width: "100%", minHeight: "100vh", border: "none", display: "block", background: "#060606" }} />
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