> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.sleuthintel.io/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# PM Traders: Prediction Market Leaderboard | Sleuth Intel

> Ranked leaderboard of prediction market traders by PnL, win rate, and closing line beat rate. Identify sharp money and copy-worthy wallets instantly.

PM Traders surfaces the signal from the noise in prediction markets — a ranked leaderboard of wallets classified by how sharp, how consistent, and how actionable their prediction market track record actually is. Stop guessing who to follow; let the data tell you.

## What PM Traders Shows

PM Traders is a ranked intelligence layer over the full prediction market trader universe. For every tracked wallet, you see:

<CardGroup cols={2}>
  <Card title="PnL" icon="money-bill-trend-up">
    Total realised profit and loss across all closed prediction market positions. The primary ranking signal — but not the only one that matters.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Win Rate" icon="trophy">
    Percentage of positions closed profitably. Useful for distinguishing traders who make many small accurate bets from those who hit infrequently but big.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Closing Line Beat Rate" icon="crosshairs">
    The sharpness metric. Measures how often a trader's entry odds were better than the odds at market close. A high CLV beat rate is the clearest sign of genuine edge.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Sample Size" icon="hashtag">
    The number of closed positions used to calculate a trader's stats. A high CLV beat rate only becomes meaningful over a large sample — this column keeps context honest.
  </Card>
</CardGroup>

## Trader Archetypes

Sleuth Intel classifies every tracked wallet into an archetype based on their statistical profile:

<CardGroup cols={2}>
  <Card title="Sharp" icon="bullseye">
    Consistently beats closing line value. Finds edge before markets fully price in information. These traders are worth tracking closely.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Whale" icon="fish">
    Moves large size but doesn't necessarily beat closing line. Their flow can move odds — valuable to monitor for market impact, not necessarily for strategy copying.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Insider" icon="eye">
    Shows anomalous win rates on specific market categories, often before major information releases. High-risk, high-signal archetype.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Noise" icon="wave-square">
    Positive PnL driven by variance rather than edge. Their record looks good in small samples but doesn't hold up under closing line scrutiny.
  </Card>
</CardGroup>

<Info>
  The **Copy-worthy** tag is applied to wallets that combine: above-average closing line beat rate, meaningful sample size (50+ closed positions), consistent win rate, and reasonable position sizing. These are the wallets most likely to continue performing.
</Info>

## Understanding Closing Line Value (CLV)

Closing line value is the most important metric in PM Traders — and the most misunderstood.

When you place a prediction market position, you get odds at a specific price. By the time the market closes (settles), the odds have moved to reflect all available information. **Beating the closing line** means your entry was at better odds than the final price — you had information or insight the market hadn't yet priced in.

* **Consistently beating the closing line** = genuine edge. You're finding information before the crowd.
* **Positive PnL but poor CLV** = winning by luck or variance, not skill.
* **Negative CLV over many positions** = systematically fading the smart money, whether intentional or not.

<Note>
  A trader with 60%+ closing line beat rate over 100+ positions is a statistically significant signal. A trader with 80% CLV over 10 positions is noise. Always weight the metric by sample size.
</Note>

## How to Use PM Traders

<Steps>
  <Step title="Sort by closing line beat rate">
    Start with CLV beat rate as your primary sort. This filters out lucky streaks and surfaces traders with repeatable edge.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Filter by archetype">
    Apply the **Sharp** or **Copy-worthy** archetype filter to narrow the leaderboard to wallets worth your attention.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Review position history">
    Click any trader to see their full position history — which markets they traded, at what odds, and whether they beat the close on each.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Add to your Watchlist">
    Hit the **Watch** button on any trader to add them to your Watchlist. Their future activity will surface in the Feed and trigger alerts if you have them configured.
  </Step>
</Steps>

<Tip>
  A trader with a high closing line beat rate is consistently finding edge before markets close — that's the definition of sharp money. When you spot one of these wallets taking a new position, use **PM Markets** to check whether the odds have already moved. If they haven't, that's your window.
</Tip>