What PM Traders Shows
PM Traders is a ranked intelligence layer over the full prediction market trader universe. For every tracked wallet, you see:PnL
Total realised profit and loss across all closed prediction market positions. The primary ranking signal — but not the only one that matters.
Win Rate
Percentage of positions closed profitably. Useful for distinguishing traders who make many small accurate bets from those who hit infrequently but big.
Closing Line Beat Rate
The sharpness metric. Measures how often a trader’s entry odds were better than the odds at market close. A high CLV beat rate is the clearest sign of genuine edge.
Sample Size
The number of closed positions used to calculate a trader’s stats. A high CLV beat rate only becomes meaningful over a large sample — this column keeps context honest.
Trader Archetypes
Sleuth Intel classifies every tracked wallet into an archetype based on their statistical profile:Sharp
Consistently beats closing line value. Finds edge before markets fully price in information. These traders are worth tracking closely.
Whale
Moves large size but doesn’t necessarily beat closing line. Their flow can move odds — valuable to monitor for market impact, not necessarily for strategy copying.
Insider
Shows anomalous win rates on specific market categories, often before major information releases. High-risk, high-signal archetype.
Noise
Positive PnL driven by variance rather than edge. Their record looks good in small samples but doesn’t hold up under closing line scrutiny.
The Copy-worthy tag is applied to wallets that combine: above-average closing line beat rate, meaningful sample size (50+ closed positions), consistent win rate, and reasonable position sizing. These are the wallets most likely to continue performing.
Understanding Closing Line Value (CLV)
Closing line value is the most important metric in PM Traders — and the most misunderstood. When you place a prediction market position, you get odds at a specific price. By the time the market closes (settles), the odds have moved to reflect all available information. Beating the closing line means your entry was at better odds than the final price — you had information or insight the market hadn’t yet priced in.- Consistently beating the closing line = genuine edge. You’re finding information before the crowd.
- Positive PnL but poor CLV = winning by luck or variance, not skill.
- Negative CLV over many positions = systematically fading the smart money, whether intentional or not.
A trader with 60%+ closing line beat rate over 100+ positions is a statistically significant signal. A trader with 80% CLV over 10 positions is noise. Always weight the metric by sample size.
How to Use PM Traders
1
Sort by closing line beat rate
Start with CLV beat rate as your primary sort. This filters out lucky streaks and surfaces traders with repeatable edge.
2
Filter by archetype
Apply the Sharp or Copy-worthy archetype filter to narrow the leaderboard to wallets worth your attention.
3
Review position history
Click any trader to see their full position history — which markets they traded, at what odds, and whether they beat the close on each.
4
Add to your Watchlist
Hit the Watch button on any trader to add them to your Watchlist. Their future activity will surface in the Feed and trigger alerts if you have them configured.